FRP Record · Iran War, 2026
Iran was never going to give up Hormuz. It was going to charge for it.
He writes down, with a date, what will happen in the war against Iran, and anchors it in the Bitcoin blockchain: from that moment on, no one can change what was written.
Federico Rodríguez Páez
Independent geopolitical analyst · Punta del Este
Anchored in Bitcoin before the event
Lead time of each call, from the Bitcoin anchor to the event
Independent: no funding from governments, companies or think tanks · Updated 18 October 2026 · The full scorecard →
What is at stake, with dates
- 3 NovBrent does not close below $100 before the United States elections.
- 20 NovBrent closes above 85. Written and anchored in August, when the EIA expected 78 for the final quarter and Goldman Sachs, 80.
- 21 DecBrent closes at 110 again. Criterion set on 17 October, with Brent at 109.86.
The 20 Nov call has been anchored in Bitcoin since August. The other two were anchored on 18 October, in block 971989.
What can be verified
Two calls anchored before they happened
In both, the document was dated in the Bitcoin blockchain before the event: no one, not even he, could change what was written.
1Until they get paid, they don’t sign
In mid-August Washington was talking about pressure, about the nuclear file and about collapsing the regime with the toughest sanctions in history. Fede read something else: the strait was not what was being negotiated, it was the collateral for payment.
- What happened
- On 25 September, Iran’s seven-day plan put funds, sanctions and the blockade in the first days, and the strait last. Washington rejected it (Al Jazeera).
- Limit
- On 10 August Mohsen Rezaei had already said that the war would end when, above all, Iran got paid: money first was the declared position. What the call adds is the place of the strait: collateral released at the end, after the last payment.
30 days by the anchor40 by the seal
2The pumping station
On 31 August, according to Reuters, the Gulf states were investing billions in pipelines to bypass Hormuz. That day the record logged Fede’s counter-argument.
- What happened
- On 10 September, drones launched from Iraq struck the Saudi East-West pipeline; according to US officials cited by CNN, at its pumping stations. On the 11th, Saudi Arabia shut it down (Al Jazeera; Oman Observer).
- Limit
- He did not say who or when. The East-West pipeline had already been attacked in April. The anchored sentence summarises his argument; his own words, from 8 September, were only anchored on 18 October.
3 days by the anchor10 by the seal
For companies and institutions
Work with Fede
The same method, applied to what hits your business: fuel, freight, insurance, routes and the markets the war moves. For importers, shipping companies, agricultural exporters, insurers, boards and investors.
What he reads is structure: who gets paid, which asset is vulnerable, which announcement will not be delivered and when each piece moves. The two calls above, in business terms: the strait as collateral for payment, for anyone insuring or chartering through Hormuz, and the pumping station, for anyone relying on the Saudi outlet via the Red Sea.
One hour · video call or in Punta del Este
Private briefing
In Spanish or English. Beforehand, five questions about your exposure: routes, fuel, insurance and timelines. Afterwards, within 48 hours, a written summary with the scenarios, the signals that announce them and the dates that matter. Confidential.
Request a proposalAnnual · one report and one call a month
Coverage for your company
A written report every month, four to six pages long, with what changed, what is coming and what to watch; a monthly call, and a written alert within 24 hours if something happens that changes your scenarios.
Request a proposalChambers of commerce, conferences, universities
Talks
The Iran war read in advance, the FRP method and how to read power from public information. For an audience or for a board.
Request a proposalWhat a report looks like: sample report in PDF, two pages, written as if for a shipping company with what the record held as of 31 August, and at the end what happened afterwards.
Write to him to arrange it, or email contacto@federicorodriguezpaez.com. Tell him in two lines what your company does and what concerns you.
Everything you share about your company is confidential. These are readings of scenarios and structure, not investment advice: he does not tell you what to buy or sell.
Who reads
The analyst
Federico Rodríguez Páez (Punta del Este, 1987) is an independent geopolitical analyst, sculptor and writer. He has followed the war against Iran since the first day; since April he has set down his reading in dated documents, and since August, in sealed ones. He reads with the FRP method: conduct before statements, structure before news, one hypothesis at a time and with a date, and the same yardstick for every actor. He is the author of Túneles, the method’s manual of intelligence and strategy (forthcoming), and is writing Se equivocó de montaña, the book of the war told from the record.
- Education
- IEEM Business School, Universidad de Montevideo · ESADE · Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile · UC Irvine Extension · EOI
- Working method
- He uses artificial intelligence to interrogate and cross-check sources. The calls are his own: in the record, his verbatim words are marked as such.
- Identifiers
- ORCID · Wikidata · ISNI · Career
- Contact
- Write to him for interviews, enquiries or to request the record’s documents with their proof files.
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The record, in your inbox
New calls with their date and criterion, the ones falling due that week and how they turned out. One email a week.